| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | +0.6% | +0.6% |
| 3d | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | +1.3% | +1.3% |
| 1w | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | -2.3% | -3.5% |
| 1m | 3 | 3 | 3 | 100% | +3.2% | +3.8% |
| 3m | 3 | 3 | 3 | 100% | +22.6% | +29.2% |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Microsoft is undervalued with significant upside potential. The author went all-in at $350 and has realized a 25% gain in three trading days, anticipating continued momentum toward all-time highs.
Microsoft is undervalued at a P/E of 22 (historically low) versus peers like Alphabet and Amazon. Strong Azure growth catalysts from OpenAI's ChatGPT deployment and broader cloud adoption will justify a return to historical 30-35 P/E multiples.
Microsoft trades at a 22 P/E ratio, historically at the low end of its 10-year range (avg 30-35), while rivals Alphabet and Amazon have significantly outperformed since January 2024. The author believes high CapEx investments in Azure and AI cloud infrastructure are justified and will drive growth, especially given ChatGPT's reliance on Microsoft Cloud.
End of results.