| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 8 | 8 | 5 | 63% | -0.2% | -0.5% |
| 3d | 8 | 8 | 6 | 75% | -1.6% | -1.2% |
| 1w | 8 | 8 | 6 | 75% | -1.0% | -1.2% |
| 1m | 8 | 8 | 6 | 75% | -6.3% | -7.0% |
| 3m | 8 | 8 | 2 | 25% | +2.3% | +6.5% |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only.
The author expects a major downward payroll revision on February 11, 2026, showing near-zero job growth for 2025. This negative labor data is likely to cause market weakness across broad indices and industrials. The author has put options positioned on XLI as a secondary play.
The author expects a major downward payroll revision on February 11, 2026, showing near-zero job growth for 2025. This negative labor data is likely to cause market weakness across broad indices and financial equities. The author has put options positioned on USB as a secondary play.
The author expects a major downward payroll revision on February 11, 2026, showing near-zero job growth for 2025. This negative labor data is likely to cause market weakness across broad indices and financial equities. The author has put options positioned on PNC as a secondary play.
The author expects a major downward payroll revision on February 11, 2026, showing near-zero job growth for 2025. This negative labor data is likely to cause market weakness across broad indices and consumer-facing equities. The author has put options positioned on SBUX as a secondary play.
The author expects a major downward payroll revision on February 11, 2026, showing near-zero job growth for 2025. This negative labor data is likely to cause market weakness across broad indices and consumer-facing equities. The author has put options positioned on TGT as a secondary play.
The author argues that two Federal Reserve members (Powell and Waller) have publicly stated that monthly payroll job numbers are systematically overstated by ~60,000 jobs. The final benchmark revision, releasing February 11, 2026, will likely show near-zero job growth for 2025, causing significant market downside. The author expects IWM to decline on this negative labor data.
The author argues that two Federal Reserve members (Powell and Waller) have publicly stated that monthly payroll job numbers are systematically overstated by ~60,000 jobs. The final benchmark revision, releasing February 11, 2026, will likely show near-zero job growth for 2025, causing significant market downside. The author expects IWM to decline on this negative labor data.
The author argues that two Federal Reserve members (Powell and Waller) have publicly stated that monthly payroll job numbers are systematically overstated by ~60,000 jobs. The final benchmark revision, releasing February 11, 2026, will likely show near-zero job growth for 2025, causing significant market downside. The author expects IWM to decline on this negative labor data.
End of results.