| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3d | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1w | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1y | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Ameluz PDT expansion to superficial basal cell shows 65.5% efficacy vs 4.8% control in pivotal trial, with real PDUFA on Sep 28. High probability on data alone, but the $21M market cap and $5M liquidity make comfortable sizing difficult.
KPTI trades below its cash balance despite priority review and accelerated approval request, with Q4 FDA filing news ahead. At 54% short float, 7 months of runway, and $41M cap against $65M liquidity, the stock faces dilution risk before any approval catalyst.
While COMPANION-002 met primary endpoint on response rate (17.1 vs 5.3) and showed strong PFS, overall survival was flat (8.9 vs 9.4 months, HR 1.05, p=0.78). The 31 control-arm crossovers muddy interpretation, and ESMO presentation will subject the data to peer scrutiny.
Azenosertib shows ~35% ORR in Cyclin E1-positive platinum-resistant ovarian cancer and will present full DENALI overall survival data at ESMO Oct 23-27. The author held it at $4.84 in August and retains position despite 18% drawdown.
Bamzireotide navoxetan, an alpha emitter in neuroendocrine tumours, will headline at ESMO Oct 23 with updated Phase 1/2a data from 76 patients. CATX has 33 months of runway funded through Phase 3 and is the author's favorite among the three ESMO plays.
ARCHER II in geographic atrophy aims to show prevention of 15-letter vision loss in 630+ patients—a higher bar than approved GA drugs that only slow lesion growth. The topline window is 2H 2026 with only 12.5 months of runway, making it a binary bet with extreme implied volatility (±96%).
Imsidolimab shows strong efficacy in GEMINI (53% skin clearance vs 13% placebo on a single IV dose, published in NEJM Evidence) and would be the third approval in twelve months if it clears PDUFA Dec 12. Market undervalues it due to historical sentiment against Vanda and weak pipeline perception rather than trial data.
CAPR has $544M market cap with 22 months of cash runway and no immediate financing pressure following FDA's decision to extend the PDUFA date to Nov 22 after narrowing the indication. The drug still faces a real bear case—the AdCom voted against it and this is the same data, not new—but the author is watching for upside after being wrong on the August timeline.
End of results.