| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 7 | 5 | 3 | 60% | +2.2% | +2.6% |
| 3d | 7 | 5 | 3 | 60% | +2.9% | +2.8% |
| 1w | 7 | 5 | 2 | 40% | +2.6% | +3.8% |
| 1m | 7 | 5 | 2 | 40% | +2.8% | +1.9% |
| 3m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Unite Group trades at a 36% discount to NAV, and the Renters' Rights Act should squeeze competitor supply. High net debt at 7.5x EBITDA post-acquisition is the key risk to execution.
LVMH reported Q2 organic revenue up 3% with Wine and Spirits up 11%, maintaining 22.5% operating margins and €8.25 billion net cash. Strong financial position, though top-line deceleration warrants monitoring.
The RealReal is a luxury resale marketplace trading at 2.3x EV/sales with 13% revenue growth and a clear path to 13.5% EBITDA margins by 2028. At 24x EV/EBITDA with minimal net debt, the execution thesis is well-mapped.
Resideo's spin-off of ADI Global distribution could unlock $38-46 in combined value against a current $35 stock price. High leverage is the risk, and the thesis is purely event-driven.
Perimeter Solutions holds a North American monopoly in aerial fire retardants with 57% gross margins, but a 1.5% fixed plus 18% variable founder fee extracts $435 million annually from shareholders. The company is GAAP unprofitable despite strong gross margins.
Bloom Energy delivered Q2 revenue of $1.1 billion (up 165% YoY) and raised FY guidance to $3.9-4.2 billion. Stock is up 1,200% in twelve months at 185x P/E, raising valuation concerns despite strong top-line growth.
ServiceNow is selling off on AI substitution fears, but 98% customer retention and a 16.5x free cash flow multiple demonstrate durability. The agentic AI orchestration reframes risk and supports the long thesis despite 66x P/E.
Netflix remains expensive at 22.9x P/E and 21.9x EV/EBIT despite being down 40% from peak, with only 13% revenue growth backing the bull case. Insider selling is a warning signal.
Meta's cash flow collapsed 91% to $784 million with buybacks suspended and $24.9 billion in new debt issuance, signaling strain despite AI investments. The deterioration in cash generation is a material concern.
Azure growth of 43% masks deteriorating free cash flow after adjusting for working capital benefits, and the stock fell 12% on elevated capex guidance. Headline earnings beats obscure cash generation weakness.
NVDA trades at 20.8x P/E, well below its five-year 37.7x average, while the market expects 44% EPS growth. With 74% gross margins and the AI capex cycle still flowing through the company, current valuation is attractive relative to fundamentals.
End of results.