| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 4 | 4 | 1 | 25% | +0.9% | +0.8% |
| 3d | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | +1.4% | +2.8% |
| 1w | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | +2.2% | +1.7% |
| 1m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 3m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only.
Carvana faces bearish technicals with a death cross pattern, insider share dumping, 30% dilution over two years, and vulnerability to consumer pressure from inflation and rising gas prices, particularly due to reliance on subprime auto loans. The stock is unwinding after a 5-1 split and earnings, suggesting all positive catalysts are priced in. The author holds profitable put positions.
Oil has tanked to below $100/barrel due to market crisis, but the author believes a recovery is likely and bought 1,000 barrels at $96.73 cost basis for June delivery. A single positive catalyst could trigger a 5-10k profit overnight.
CVNA has rallied from $280 to $390 but is flashing bearish moving average signals. With a thin 6% profit margin, rising fuel and inflation pose significant headwinds. The recent stock split is symbolic hype with no fundamental value, and once enthusiasm fades, downside risk emerges.
End of results.