| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | -4.3% | -4.2% |
| 3d | 4 | 4 | 1 | 25% | -5.4% | -5.8% |
| 1w | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0% | -10.3% | -9.0% |
| 1m | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0% | -18.7% | -18.0% |
| 3m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Microsoft is held as a long-term core position in a diversified SaaS portfolio alongside ServiceNow. The author remains committed to this position as part of a broad tech and cloud exposure strategy.
ServiceNow is held as a core long-term position and represents a mature "elite compounder" that has already received market rerating. It serves as a comparable benchmark for SAP's potential valuation upside.
SAP is transitioning from legacy ERP to a high-growth cloud and AI company with strong competitive moats, growing cloud revenue, improving FCF, and strategic acquisitions building an enterprise AI layer. The market has not yet awarded it the premium multiple that comparable SaaS names receive, despite increasingly compelling fundamentals.
Microsoft is a long-term compounder that will obviously outperform in retrospect. The author believes it's a high-conviction bet worth committing significant capital to.
End of results.