| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 3d | 3 | 3 | 3 | 100% | -0.2% | +3.2% |
| 1w | 3 | 3 | 3 | 100% | +1.0% | +5.7% |
| 1m | 3 | 3 | 3 | 100% | +2.9% | +12.6% |
| 3m | 3 | 3 | 3 | 100% | +25.7% | +45.7% |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Semiconductor stocks will decline as software companies cut capex spending, reversing the tailwind that has driven semis higher. This capital rotation from semis to software will pressure semiconductor valuations.
As software companies reduce capex to protect margins and focus on optimization, capital will rotate out of semis into software. ServiceNow will benefit from this rotation with revenue growth and margin expansion, offering the best risk-adjusted returns among large software players.
ServiceNow is undervalued despite near-term weakness: strong fundamentals with 85% Fortune 500 adoption, 98% retention, and solid YoY revenue growth provide a stable foundation. Insider buying by Trump and CEO signals confidence; author is long and targeting $12.25 upside over 3 months.
End of results.