| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 5 | 5 | 5 | 100% | +2.7% | +1.8% |
| 3d | 5 | 5 | 5 | 100% | +2.7% | +3.5% |
| 1w | 5 | 5 | 5 | 100% | +2.6% | +3.2% |
| 1m | 5 | 5 | 4 | 80% | +6.9% | +7.2% |
| 3m | 5 | 5 | 3 | 60% | +4.5% | +8.2% |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Booking is a solid compounder with excellent growth vectors and attractive valuation even when pricing in AI and Google disruption risk, which the author views as unlikely near-term; travel demand is a long-term tailwind tied to rising global disposable income.
Mercado Libre presents an asymmetric opportunity despite risky aggressive lending expansion; if it succeeds, returns are exceptional; if loan losses escalate, marketplace revenues (55% of total) provide a buffer while the company retains massive market share and partner ecosystem.
MSCI is a wonderful company with stellar fundamentals and a good valuation, driven by passive investing adoption and emerging market development, with subscription revenues providing downside protection.
Visa is a wonderful company with a massive moat trading at a good price, with strong fundamentals and growth vectors from global spending expansion and cash-to-digital conversion; fears of disruption are overblown.
CME is trading below fair value due to an overblown regulatory sell-off. The company's unassailable liquidity moat, diversified revenues across asset classes, and strong new product pipeline (crypto futures, gold trading, single stock futures, compute futures) position it as the single best opportunity, with subscription analytics adding antifragility.
End of results.