| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 4 | 4 | 1 | 25% | +1.7% | +1.8% |
| 3d | 4 | 4 | 2 | 50% | -1.7% | +0.0% |
| 1w | 4 | 4 | 2 | 50% | +1.1% | +2.7% |
| 1m | 4 | 4 | 3 | 75% | +0.7% | -0.8% |
| 3m | 4 | 4 | 1 | 25% | +2.7% | +5.9% |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Micron stock has risen ~800% within a year despite valuation concerns. The author questions whether such extreme gains are justified by innovations and predicts a market correction.
Palantir has experienced unsustainable 800%+ gains driven by market speculation and AI enthusiasm rather than fundamental improvements. The author questions whether valuations can remain at these elevated levels.
Rocket Lab stock has risen ~800% in recent years despite fundamentals not justifying the valuation. The author views this as speculative excess driven by AI/tech hype rather than sustainable business growth.
The market has experienced unsustainable gains since 2023, with SPY up nearly 100% driven by inflated tech valuations and speculative bubble conditions. The author argues that valuations are disconnected from fundamentals and predicts a eventual correction or crash.
End of results.