| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | -1.3% | -4.4% |
| 3d | 4 | 4 | 3 | 75% | +2.9% | +2.7% |
| 1w | 4 | 4 | 2 | 50% | +1.3% | +2.9% |
| 1m | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | -9.9% | -7.8% |
| 3m | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | -56.4% | -59.4% |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
ATOS trades near cash value with a clinical catalyst (Karisma 24-month durability data expected Q3 2026) that could drive a re-rate and improve funding terms. Chart setup shows a base forming with potential upside to the 200-day SMA if price breaks above 2.80.
Sol-Gel is a binary biotech play on a Q4 2026 Phase 3 readout for SGT-610 in Gorlin syndrome with no approved therapy to prevent basal cell carcinomas. A positive result could re-rate the asset to $600m+ peak sales with patent protection to 2044, and a major 10% insider holder (Opaleye) has consistently bought through volatility, adding conviction to the thesis.
TENX's fully-enrolled, well-powered Phase 3 trial (LEVEL) for oral levosimendag in PH-HFpEF has ~40-60% approval odds, targeting an untreated market with no competitors. Results due August 2026 with a clear catalyst; solid balance sheet ($119M cash, no debt) supports near-term runway without dilutive raises ahead of the event.
OTLK is a binary biotech betting on July 29, 2026 FDA approval of LYTENAVA, an injectable bevacizumab for wet AMD. The May 2026 appeal win established substantial efficacy evidence, leaving only labeling sign-off; approval would unlock a $8.5B market with 12 years of exclusivity as the sole approved on-label ophthalmic bevacizumab, while rejection with only one quarter of cash likely results in wipeout-level dilution or restructuring.
End of results.