| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 3d | 4 | 4 | 1 | 25% | -0.1% | -0.2% |
| 1w | 4 | 4 | 2 | 50% | -0.8% | -1.4% |
| 1m | 4 | 4 | 2 | 50% | +2.7% | +4.2% |
| 3m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only.
Strait of Hormuz blockade will constrain 20% of global oil supply, driving crude prices higher. Energy stocks (XLE) will benefit from elevated oil prices resulting from supply-side shock.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will drive oil prices sharply higher, triggering stagflation (high energy + weak economy). The market hasn't priced in this geopolitical shock, leading to a sharp SPY decline as sentiment shifts from complacency to fear.
Energy sector exposed to supply chain disruptions and margin compression from shipping/logistics challenges. Put positions on XLE capitalize on earnings disappointment and guidance cuts.
Supply chain disruptions will force earnings misses and guidance cuts this quarter, particularly among industrials and semis with thin margins and international procurement. The market has not priced in this shock, creating an extinction-level decline for the broad market.
End of results.