u/Past_Ad1386

4 theses · first seen Jun 8, 2026

Window	Theses	Resolved	Wins	Win rate	Avg return	Median return
1d	4	4	3	75%	-0.9%	-1.5%
3d	4	4	3	75%	-1.4%	-1.4%
1w	3	3	1	33%	+1.0%	+3.2%
1m	2	2	1	50%	+0.1%	+0.1%
3m	1	1	1	100%	+57.8%	+57.8%
6m	0	0	0	—	—	—
1y	0	0	0	—	—	—

Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.

Thesis history

$UBERr/ValueInvestingDiscussionbearish

u/Past_Ad1386 · 5d ago3 prior · 100% at 3mo

Dara Khosrowshahi as CEO at Uber: Fantastic Operator, Questionable Serial Acquirer?

Uber's ROIC is likely to compress significantly as Dara Khosrowshahi's $18.7B acquisition spree expands the invested capital base. While he is an excellent operator, his historical pattern of overpaying for acquisitions at Expedia suggests the Delivery Hero premium and other deals risk future goodwill write-downs and value destruction.

At post $69.96Now $66.96-4.3% since postedas of Oct 23, 2:46 PM ET

1d-1.5%

3d-1.3%

1w—

1m—

3m—

6m—

1y—

original post →

$DUOLr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbearish

u/Past_Ad1386 · 23d ago3 prior · 100% at 3mo

Anyone buying Duolingo (DUOL)?

Duolingo sacrifices profitability for user growth, prioritizing DAU over education quality and deferring monetization. Management guidance shows 2026 Adjusted EBITDA margins compressing to 25% from 29.5% in 2025, and the company likely lacks a sustainable moat, making it overvalued.

At post $146.57Now $143.04-2.4% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET

1d-1.6%

3d-1.6%

1w+3.2%

1m—

3m—

6m—

1y—

original post →

$SPGIr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish

u/Past_Ad1386 · 46d ago3 prior · 100% at 3mo

S&P Global Considering Spinning Out Cap IQ - Why?

S&P Global is spinning out Capital IQ to focus reinvestment on higher-margin Indices and Ratings businesses (near 70% op margins vs 20% for Market Intelligence). The spin will improve consolidated margins and ROIC by shedding goodwill and lower-margin assets, potentially driving multiple expansion into the high 20s.

At post $429.31Now $449.87+4.8% since postedas of Oct 23, 12:00 PM ET

1d-2.6%

3d-4.3%

1w-3.9%

1m-6.2%

3m—

6m—

1y—

original post →

$HZOr/wallstreetbetsDDbullish

u/Past_Ad1386 · 138d ago3 prior · 100% at 3mo

MarineMax (HZO): Arb Opportunity

MarineMax is a special situations/arbitrage opportunity. A Donerail Group $35 take-private offer was rejected, but the board has voted to sell and engaged Wells-Fargo for a strategic review. A sum-of-the-parts valuation (particularly valuing marina assets acquired from IGY at ~$50/share) suggests significant upside from current levels on a full sale.

At post $33.06Now $52.59+59.1% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET

1d+1.8%

3d+1.7%

1w+3.7%

1m+6.5%

3m+57.8%

6m—

1y—

original post →

End of results.