| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | -9.7% | -9.7% |
| 3d | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | -8.7% | -6.6% |
| 1w | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | -6.1% | -1.3% |
| 1m | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | -13.3% | +1.3% |
| 3m | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | -48.3% | -48.3% |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Hertz will experience significant upside next week when short sellers are forced to cover approximately 97 million shares. The author holds calls expiring next week, viewing today's 50% gain from $1.70 to $2.20 as validation of the thesis rather than a sell signal.
Hertz has been oversold at ~$1.70 despite beat earnings ($2.4B revenue vs $2.28B est, -$0.11 EPS vs -$0.24 est) and strong RPD growth. With 75% of float sold short and only 5 days to cover, short squeeze potential could drive the stock to $3+ next week.
Virgin Galactic will rally on SpaceX-related catalyst tomorrow. Author expects stock to reach $8+ and is betting on the move with deep ITM 1DTE calls, anticipating a major bounce from current suppressed levels.
End of results.