| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3d | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1w | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1y | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Author expected the S&P 500 to decline significantly given macro headwinds (US debt, oil prices, rising yields). Purchased SPY put options in August expiry with a large notional position but closed them at a substantial loss.
Author believed the Nasdaq was due for a significant downturn (Dot Com 2.0) based on rounded-top formation, overvaluation, circular financing, and datacenter excess. Held QQQ put options from March through August despite market strength, but the thesis ultimately failed to materialize.
End of results.