| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 5 | 5 | 4 | 80% | -1.2% | -1.4% |
| 3d | 6 | 6 | 4 | 67% | -1.4% | -0.0% |
| 1w | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20% | +2.6% | +3.0% |
| 1m | 5 | 5 | 3 | 60% | +16.3% | +18.3% |
| 3m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Meta is falling behind in the AI race and faces deteriorating fundamentals as aggressive AI/capex spending compresses free cash flow heading into earnings. The recent analyst rally is a bull trap, and absent meaningful Muse monetization, the stock is positioned to decline from current levels.
Meta should be avoided before the next earnings miss and resulting correction to $620 or lower, driven by ballooning CAPEX spending without clear AI monetization direction and Zuckerberg's admission of near-term slowdown. The author recommends buying LEAPS puts at sub-$600 levels, targeting a decline to $560, with a long-term view that CAPEX will persist through 2028.
Uber is now profitable and the recent robotaxi-driven sell-off is overblown. Regulatory and geofencing constraints will limit robotaxi market share, while Uber's diversified revenue streams (rides 50%, delivery 47%, freight) and the Delivery Hero acquisition—spanning 99 countries and unlocking growth in developing markets and MENA—position it for mid-to-long-term upside. DCF and technical analysis support a $130 target price.
Author is positioning for upside on Meta through LEAP calls, expecting AI monetization announcements at next earnings to drive the stock higher. They have 80k dry powder to average down on any dip to 530-520 price levels.
Author expects Meta to crash again following earnings and plans to flip shares before the earnings announcement. Despite long-term confidence, short-term outlook is bearish due to volatile price action.
Author expects Meta to rally to $600 by December due to sector rotation when Nvidia delivers, combined with anticipated capex reduction of 10-20%. Plans to deploy $100k into $155 calls if Meta dips to $565.
End of results.