| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | -3.8% | -0.5% |
| 3d | 3 | 3 | 3 | 100% | +4.3% | +11.6% |
| 1w | 3 | 3 | 3 | 100% | +1.7% | +15.2% |
| 1m | 3 | 3 | 3 | 100% | -11.4% | +2.1% |
| 3m | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | -16.8% | -14.1% |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Long call position on MRNA expiring January 2028 with $60 strike, now significantly profitable. The position is up 449%, indicating the author expects MRNA to remain above the strike price through expiry.
Reddit is a misunderstood growth story driven by international expansion (23 languages), exceptional FCF growth (325%+ YoY), and ARPU expansion potential, especially in rest-of-world markets. The company's data licensing opportunity and LLM-resistant moat—keeping proprietary data off-platform—offer additional upside not captured in DCF valuations.
Reddit is a misunderstood growth story driven by international expansion (23 languages), exceptional FCF growth (325%+ YoY), and ARPU expansion potential, especially in rest-of-world markets. The company's data licensing opportunity and LLM-resistant moat—keeping proprietary data off-platform—offer additional upside not captured in DCF valuations.
Author holds 4x puts at $2,100 strike expiring tomorrow as a hedge against a long position, hoping for a major crash. The position is speculative and described as a cheap bet on downside.
End of results.