u/Weak_Alternative_168

2 theses · first seen Sep 4, 2026

Window	Theses	Win rate	Avg return	Median return
1d	2	—	+3.7%	+3.7%
3d	2	—	+5.1%	+5.1%
1w	2	—	-0.0%	-0.0%
1m	2	—	+7.6%	+7.6%
3m	1	—	+5.2%	+5.2%
6m	0	—	—	—
1y	0	—	—	—

Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.

Thesis history

$VRTr/ValueInvestingDiscussionneutral

u/Weak_Alternative_168 · 78d ago1 prior · awaiting results

Vertiv raised full-year guidance across the board and the stock still dropped double digits. The miss was the top line, not profits. Blip or the first crack?

Vertiv beat earnings and raised full-year guidance but missed Q2 revenue, causing a sharp selloff. The core question is whether the revenue miss reflects timing on large, lumpy AI infrastructure projects (supporting the valuation) or signals execution challenges that won't forgive the high 34x forward multiple if they recur.

At post $263.05Now $246.00-6.5% since postedas of Oct 1, 12:31 PM ET

1d+2.6%

3d+4.6%

1w+2.7%

1m-2.4%

3m—

6m—

1y—

original post →

$ADBEr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisneutral

u/Weak_Alternative_168 · 97d ago1 prior · awaiting results

Adobe is at ~9–10x forward earnings while still growing 13% and raising guidance — the whole stock is pricing one variable. What am I underweighting on the bear side?

Adobe trades at a decade-low 9–10x forward P/E despite 13% YoY revenue growth and raised guidance, pricing in a binary AI outcome: either the moat expands and AI-first ARR scales (bullish) or competitive pressure from Canva/Figma and AI commoditization compress creative-pro seat growth and revenue (bearish). The outcome hinges on whether net retention holds and AI-first ARR compounding offsets structural TAM compression.

At post $224.56Now $247.09+10.0% since postedas of Oct 19, 4:30 PM ET

1d+4.8%

3d+5.7%

1w-2.8%

1m+17.6%

3m+5.2%

6m—

1y—

original post →

End of results.