| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3d | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1w | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1y | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Author is long near-term call options expiring after earnings, betting on the upside skew materializing with Q2 results.
Author is long Jan-2027 and Aug-14 call options on Figure Technology, betting on upside skew into earnings with favorable risk-reward versus market-priced symmetric move.
Figure Technology's options are pricing a symmetric ±14.7% move into Q2 earnings on 8/13, but the author's scenario analysis weights 65% of outcomes above current $29.61, with shallower downside zones than upside zones. The bull case rests on HELOC take rates holding at 2.9%+ and Q3 guidance starting with a 5, though implied move has compressed to +3.7% from earlier +7.3%.
End of results.