| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40% | -1.0% | -3.6% |
| 3d | 6 | 6 | 3 | 50% | -2.0% | -1.3% |
| 1w | 6 | 6 | 3 | 50% | -1.0% | -2.7% |
| 1m | 5 | 5 | 5 | 100% | +60.2% | +50.8% |
| 3m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) is a multi-decade growth opportunity with strong momentum. The author has been holding the position and is celebrating gains, positioning it as a major trade for the coming decades.
Launch commoditization lacks the market conditions to emerge, positioning Relativity Space (Firefly's launch partner) and other medium-lift providers for pricing power if they reach technical and commercial scale. The oligopoly structure favors profitability over price wars.
Launch commoditization is unlikely to emerge in the foreseeable future due to the lack of fungibility in launch services and game-theoretic incentives in oligopolistic markets. Rocket Lab holds pricing power as the sole scaled, profitable provider in dedicated small launch, with rising prices and no evidence of near-term competitive pressure.
Redwire is poised for significant upside as a technical breakout begins following the removal of AE Industrial's 30% overhang through a block sale. The company is undervalued at $2B market cap on $450M revenue with strong DoD ties and growing opportunities in space leasing, with the author targeting $30-$50 per share.
RKLB Jan 28 $75 call options represent a leveraged bullish bet on Rocket Lab reaching or exceeding $75/share by late January, aligning with the broader thesis of permanently elevated valuations for surviving launch companies.
Rocket Lab is a rare survivor among 100+ competing small launch vehicle companies. Using commodities valuation logic, successful launch companies should trade at permanently high valuations reflecting the amortized costs of all failed competitors. RKLB should command premium multiples similar to gold mining discoveries, with fair value potentially reaching $519/share based on SpaceX replacement cost analogies.
End of results.