| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3d | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1w | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1y | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Grab is Southeast Asia's integrated platform (rides, food, payments, loans) with retention climbing from 37% to 88% and user spend jumping 4-5x. At ~10x 2028 cash-flow target with ~22% growth and 84% of cities untapped, valuation does not price in platform penetration upside.
Eos Energy makes US long-duration zinc batteries at vastly lower build cost (~$25M per GWh versus ~$100M for lithium) with signs of successful factory ramp: 940bps margin gains, second line outpacing first, ~$807M backlog. Market prices in ~33% success probability despite compelling unit economics.
dLocal's take rate fell from 2.9% to ~0.7% as merchants graduate to cheaper high-volume pricing, but dollar profits still grow 30-40% annually while volumes grow 60-90%+. Current price assumes ~13% cash-flow growth versus floor guidance of 25%+ with historical no-miss track record.
Gentex controls ~79% of auto-dimming mirrors globally but trades at ~11x earnings like a declining parts supplier. Full Display Mirror sells at $80-150 versus $15-25 for plain mirrors, boosting profit per vehicle even as production slips, plus ~7% buybacks and ~2.3% dividend.
Omada Health offers chronic-care programs through employers with 45-50% revenue growth, gross margins expanding from 52% to 74%, and per-member cost down 42%. Recently turned GAAP-profitable with sustained margin expansion suggesting sustainable unit economics.
Broadridge operates critical shareholder-voting and proxy infrastructure for major public companies at ~18x earnings. Tokenized shares would increase rather than decrease work required, making regulatory risk to the business model overstated.
HOKA's US growth slowdown to ~8% is attributed to shipment timing rather than brand weakness; international HOKA still growing 25%+ with brand awareness under 20% versus 50%+ in US. With 58% margins and 43% direct sales, international expansion runway is underpriced.
Kaspi trades at ~8x earnings with low-teens profit growth and 6-7% dividend, operating as Kazakhstan's integrated Amazon/PayPal/Grab with marketplace take rate climbing 16%. Combination of valuation, growth, and yield provides margin of safety.
Broadcom fell to ~$357 on 0.6% guidance miss, but custom AI-chip orders are booked through 2031 with 20%+ growth implied, versus market's 9-10% assumption. At ~14x 2028 earnings, the stock prices in conservative growth when booked capacity suggests upside.
Waymo and Tesla robotaxis will need to rent access to Uber's massive rider base (~208M monthly, ~70% US share) rather than displace it, paying ~20% cut. At ~16x free cash flow with bookings up ~22% and growth continuing even in cities with Waymo operations, Uber's moat is its demand network, not drivers.
End of results.