u/jackandjillonthehill

2 theses · first seen Oct 20, 2026

Window	Theses	Resolved	Wins	Win rate	Avg return	Median return
1d	2	2	0	0%	+1.0%	+1.0%
3d	2	2	0	0%	+1.0%	+1.0%
1w	2	2	1	50%	+1.1%	+1.1%
1m	0	0	0	—	—	—
3m	0	0	0	—	—	—
6m	0	0	0	—	—	—
1y	0	0	0	—	—	—

Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.

Thesis history

$GOOGr/ValueInvestingDiscussionbearish

u/jackandjillonthehill · 22d ago1 prior · awaiting results

Making sense of Muse, the agentic model, and evaporating cash flow at META and GOOG

Google faces an even steeper cash flow problem than Meta: it already has negative FCF in Q2 2026, and launching an agentic product will push FCF further negative due to token-cost economics. Although Google has better consumer trust and existing payment/email access, the fundamental variable-cost model of agentic AI makes profitability untenable.

At post $334.93Now $317.28-5.3% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET

1d+1.6%

3d+1.6%

1w+3.0%

1m—

3m—

6m—

1y—

original post →

$METAr/ValueInvestingDiscussionbearish

u/jackandjillonthehill · 22d ago1 prior · awaiting results

Making sense of Muse, the agentic model, and evaporating cash flow at META and GOOG

Meta's free agentic Muse model generates massive token consumption with unclear monetization strategy. The variable costs of token-intensive agentic tasks will likely outpace any transaction-fee revenue, driving free cash flow further into decline despite near-term optimization claims.

At post $725.93Now $642.62-11.5% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET

1d+0.3%

3d+0.3%

1w-0.7%

1m—

3m—

6m—

1y—

original post →

End of results.