u/m86zed

1 thesis · first seen Sep 4, 2026
WindowThesesResolvedWinsWin rateAvg returnMedian return
1d1100%+0.4%+0.4%
3d1100%+3.0%+3.0%
1w1100%+7.4%+7.4%
1m111100%-5.7%-5.7%
3m111100%-5.9%-5.9%
6m1100%+47.0%+47.0%
1y000———

Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.

Thesis history

$PLTRr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbearish
u/m86zed · 188d agono track record yet
“I don't own PLTR”

Palantir ($PLTR) at $136: The CEO's jet budget grew faster than international revenue. I ran a DCF, Monte Carlo, and zero out of 10,000 simulations justified the current price.

At $136/share, Palantir trades at a severe premium (71x revenue, 215x trailing earnings) that cannot be justified by fundamentals. DCF and Monte Carlo analysis across 10,000 simulations value the company between $15-30, with zero simulations reaching the current price even under optimistic growth assumptions. The valuation ignores international headwinds, massive SBC dilution, and unrealistic margin expansion requirements.

At post $142.15Now $208.67+46.8% since postedas of Oct 13, 4:01 PM ET
1d+0.4%
3d+3.0%
1w+7.4%
1m-5.7%
3m-5.9%
6m+47.0%
1y—
original post →

End of results.