Archive mode — the ledger is frozen as of August 24, 2026. Past calls and track records remain browsable; no new data is being ingested.
u/manhattan-ice
2 theses · first seen May 25, 2026
| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|
| 1d | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| 3d | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| 1w | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | +2.1% | +2.1% |
| 1m | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | -5.4% | -5.4% |
| 3m | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | -24.4% | -24.4% |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Thesis history
Jumia [NYSE: JMIA] → Discussion
Jumia is a turnaround story with significant long-term potential following a 2023 management overhaul. The company has pivoted from growth-at-all-costs to profitability, built consumer trust in untapped African eCommerce markets (600M TAM, 39% YoY growth), and faces no major competition due to unit economics that deter larger players.
At post $6.92·Now $6.63-4.2% since postedas of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET
1d-0.4%
3d+2.6%
1w+0.7%
1m+5.9%
3m-10.0%
6m—
1y—
RKLB Long Position and Discussion
Rocket Lab is a long-term fundamental holding with superior management (Peter Beck, Adam Spice) and a dominant position in small payload launches. Neutron's expansion into mid-size payloads combined with satellite manufacturing assets positions RKLB across the entire space economy value chain, and at current valuations appears underpriced relative to SpaceX's ~$1.75T valuation.
At post $131.16·Now $69.44-47.1% since postedas of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET
1d—
3d-2.9%
1w+3.5%
1m-16.7%
3m-38.8%
6m—
1y—