u/miguel_equivara

Window	Theses	Resolved	Wins	Win rate	Avg return	Median return
1d	0	0	0	—	—	—
3d	1	1	1	100%	-3.6%	-3.6%
1w	1	1	1	100%	-5.1%	-5.1%
1m	0	0	0	—	—	—
3m	0	0	0	—	—	—
6m	0	0	0	—	—	—
1y	0	0	0	—	—	—

$SHOPr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbearish

u/miguel_equivara · 12d agono track record yet

I passed on Shopify at $94 and it's $149 fourteen weeks later. I did the full work to find out if I was wrong: P/E, FCF, Owner's Earnings it's still expensive.

Shopify's business is genuinely accelerating with 34% revenue growth and strong retention, but current valuation at $149 is expensive across all metrics: 100x owner's earnings, 80x FCF, and 72x forward earnings. Even the author's five-year intrinsic value model yields only 4.2% annual returns from current levels, indicating future gains are already priced in.

At post $152.90Now $134.10-12.3% since postedas of Sep 8, 4:30 PM ET

1d—

3d-3.6%

1w-5.1%

1m—

3m—

6m—

1y—

original post →

Thesis history

I passed on Shopify at $94 and it's $149 fourteen weeks later. I did the full work to find out if I was wrong: P/E, FCF, Owner's Earnings it's still expensive.