| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | +2.8% | +2.8% |
| 3d | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | +5.4% | +5.4% |
| 1w | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | +8.8% | +8.8% |
| 1m | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | -9.5% | -9.5% |
| 3m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Advanced Auto Parts sold its wholesale business to Carlyle in 2024, dramatically improving gross margins. After closing underperforming stores (over 10% of base), the company is positioned for recovery; the author is watching for entry but expects improving fundamentals as operations stabilize.
FISV shows no signs of fundamental recovery one year after its collapse. Declining TTM revenues, collapsing gross profit margins indicating lost pricing power, and surging SG&A expenses suggest management is scrambling to retain clients rather than executing a credible turnaround, resulting in severe operating margin deterioration.
Coursera trades at $5.74 despite $3.50/share in net cash, leaving only $2.24 for a business generating $3.50/share in gross profit. Using conservative valuation methods—either a perpetual 10% discount rate model ($35/share) or a 5x gross profit multiple ($17.50/share)—the stock appears significantly undervalued, especially given zero debt and growing revenue.
End of results.