| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 8 | 8 | 2 | 25% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| 3d | 8 | 8 | 1 | 13% | -0.7% | -0.5% |
| 1w | 8 | 8 | 3 | 38% | +0.7% | +0.6% |
| 1m | 7 | 7 | 1 | 14% | -4.0% | -4.5% |
| 3m | 6 | 6 | 5 | 83% | +6.5% | +4.9% |
| 6m | 6 | 6 | 2 | 33% | -4.4% | -2.1% |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
GoodRx Holdings is significantly undervalued and can easily 5x within the next couple of years. The author is up 50% since purchase and sees substantial further upside.
Tesla trades at extreme valuations (243x FCF, 263x earnings) unsustainable by fundamentals: it generates sub-5% returns on capital, pays no dividend, and trades 40x OEM medians and 10x BYD despite inferior profitability. Even at 50x earnings Tesla remains expensive without demonstrated capital returns to shareholders.
Flowers Foods is a century-old bakery staple trading near 20-year lows with an 11% dividend yield, offering exceptional value and income for disciplined investors in established businesses with real earnings.
Campbell Soup is a legacy 150+ year-old company trading near 23-year lows with a 7% dividend yield, representing solid value in an established consumer staple versus high-priced growth stocks.
Conagra Brands is a century-old food producer now at 32-year lows with a 9.56% dividend yield, providing extreme value relative to its historical price and speculative AI/quantum plays.
McCormick is a 130+ year-old company trading near 10-year lows with a 3.5% dividend yield, offering defensive value and stable earnings for investors skeptical of zero-revenue tech speculation.
General Mills is a century-old food staple trading near 15-year lows with a 7% dividend yield, presenting a value opportunity in an established, profitable company versus overvalued AI or quantum computing stocks.
Kraft Heinz is a legacy consumer staple trading near all-time lows with a 7% dividend yield, offering value for investors seeking established companies with tangible earnings and cultural relevance over speculative high-growth plays.
End of results.