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u/richyfin

2 theses · first seen Jun 30, 2026
WindowThesesResolvedWinsWin rateAvg returnMedian return
1d2200%-3.1%-3.1%
3d2200%-5.2%-5.2%
1w2200%-10.0%-10.0%
1m2200%-18.8%-18.8%
3m000———
6m000———
1y000———

Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.

Thesis history

$UWMCDDbullish
u/richyfin · 46d ago1 prior · awaiting results

$UWMC - Mat’s Golden Nugget

UWMC is trading at an all-time low of ~$2 with capitulation signals and management buying. The company trades at 4.9 P/E (base case) to 2.7 P/E (bull case) with 44% mortgage market share and ~11% of all US mortgages. Dividend reduction, stabilized MSR values from higher rates, and potential cash generation as rates fall provide multiple catalysts for reversion.

At post $2.29Now $1.59-30.6% since postedas of Aug 14, 4:59 PM ET
1d-3.1%
3d-5.2%
1w-10.0%
1m-18.8%
3m—
6m—
1y—
original post →
$UWMCDDbullish
u/richyfin · 46d ago1 prior · awaiting results

$UWMC - Mat’s Golden Nugget

UWMC trades at an all-time low with signs of capitulation (volume spike) and CEO has stopped selling, signaling undervaluation. Base case P/E of 4.9 on $680M earnings or bull case P/E of 2.7 on $1.2B earnings offer strong margin of safety, especially given the company's 44% market share in residential mortgage wholesale and status as originator of 10-12% of all US mortgages.

At post $2.29Now $1.59-30.6% since postedas of Aug 14, 4:59 PM ET
1d-3.1%
3d-5.2%
1w-10.0%
1m-18.8%
3m—
6m—
1y—
original post →

End of results.