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u/spyapple

3 theses · first seen Sep 4, 2026
WindowThesesResolvedWinsWin rateAvg returnMedian return
1d1100%-2.1%-2.1%
3d2200%-4.0%-4.0%
1w2200%-4.9%-4.9%
1m1100%-15.2%-15.2%
3m000———
6m000———
1y000———

Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.

Thesis history

$PNRr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/spyapple · 28d ago2 prior · awaiting results
Long PNR

Pentair/PNR is undervalued. LONG

Pentair trades at 16.3x EV/FCF and 14x P/E, well below historical averages for a quality water tech business. A DCF model using 748M in current FCF growing 8-9% annually yields ~$125 intrinsic value; current price of ~$67 implies 85%+ upside once the market reprices the stock, with the recent pool segment decline viewed as temporary inventory destocking rather than fundamental deterioration.

At post $67.19Now $58.62-12.8% since postedas of Sep 8, 4:30 PM ET
1d-2.1%
3d-1.5%
1w-5.4%
1m—
3m—
6m—
1y—
original post →
$DECKr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/spyapple · 30d ago2 prior · awaiting results

Deckers Brands / DECK is undervalued. LONG

Deckers is trading at 13.8x P/E and 11.3x EV/FCF, well below its 22x historical average, with a pristine balance sheet of $1.6B net cash and $1.05B annual free cash flow. A DCF model assuming 9% FCF growth yields an intrinsic value of ~$225/share, implying 130% upside from the current $97 level despite near-term macro headwinds.

At post $97.44Now $82.60-15.2% since postedas of Sep 8, 4:30 PM ET
1d—
3d-6.4%
1w-4.5%
1m-15.2%
3m—
6m—
1y—
original post →
$CRMr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/spyapple · 32d ago2 prior · awaiting results

Salesforce / CRM is undervalued. LONG

Salesforce is trading at a historically low 20-22x P/E (vs. 10-year average >100x) with strong fundamentals: 10% revenue growth, 78% gross margins, $15B operating cash flow, and $6.6B quarterly free cash flow. DCF analysis using conservative 10% growth and 18x terminal multiple yields ~$505 intrinsic value vs. current $190 stock price, implying 165% upside.

At post $197.51Now $249.12+26.1% since postedas of Sep 8, 4:30 PM ET
original post →

End of results.