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u/Aya_Research

4 theses · first seen Oct 20, 2026
WindowThesesResolvedWinsWin rateAvg returnMedian return
1d43267%-0.8%+0.4%
3d43267%-2.4%-2.2%
1w43267%+3.6%+3.9%
1m43267%+1.8%+2.8%
3m43267%+3.5%+1.1%
6m000———
1y000———

Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.

Thesis history

$METAr/ValueInvestingDiscussionbullish
u/Aya_Research · 95d ago3 prior · 67% at 3mo

Meta printed the worst quarter of the four hyperscalers this week. It might also be the only one holding a free option.

Meta printed the worst quarter among hyperscalers but holds a free embedded option to shift from a capital-intensive AI operator to a higher-margin infrastructure landlord by renting excess compute capacity. At mid-teens forward multiples, investors pay operator prices while gaining exposure to a potential category shift that could flatten capex and unlock value.

At post $538.61Now $612.13+13.7% since postedas of Nov 2, 2:00 PM ET
1d+3.3%
3d+3.3%
1w+9.4%
1m+7.2%
3m+13.7%
6m—
1y—
original post →
$AAPLr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/Aya_Research · 97d ago3 prior · 67% at 3mo

Can Apple really be worth 40x P/E? The five-year-old version @Teembeau

Apple's 2.5 billion screens create a moat in the AI era: every major AI lives behind Apple's devices, and services ($31B/quarter, growing 16%) is the toll at that gate. Strong unit gains in a collapsing smartphone market, record iPhone share, and Mac growing 29% faster than street expected show Apple's device advantage is compounding into its strongest season.

At post $337.90Now $338.32+0.1% since postedas of Nov 2, 4:15 PM ET
1d-1.4%
3d-8.7%
1w-8.0%
1m-5.4%
3m+2.7%
6m—
1y—
original post →
$GOOGLr/ValueInvestingDiscussionbullish
u/Aya_Research · 99d ago3 prior · 67% at 3mo

Buffett purchased $10 billion worth of Google stock. While everyone is asking why he bought in, a more compelling question is: why was Google in such a rush to sell?

Google is strategically converting high-value currency into scarce long-term assets—proprietary chips, energy/power infrastructure, and exclusive relationships with frontier AI labs (e.g., Anthropic). This positions Google as a utility-like token factory collecting rent from competitors regardless of who wins the model wars. At a forward P/E of 22.5x, the stock is undervalued when viewed as toll-road infrastructure into the AGI era backed by a monopoly search cash-printing machine.

At post $326.35Now $278.99-14.5% since postedas of Nov 2, 4:15 PM ET
1d+2.2%
3d+2.2%
1w+14.4%
1m+4.7%
3m-1.9%
6m—
1y—
original post →
$GOOGLr/ValueInvestingDiscussionneutral
u/Aya_Research · 103d ago3 prior · 67% at 3mo

I basically stopped clicking Google links months ago. Their quarter just explained why that doesn't matter.

Google's search dominance and ad monetization remain intact despite AI disruption and user behavior shifts, but the $4T+ valuation combined with rising capex, negative free cash flow, and escalating investment requirements make the risk-reward unclear at current levels.

At post $341.87Now $278.99-18.4% since postedas of Nov 2, 4:15 PM ET
1d-7.1%
3d-6.5%
1w-1.6%
1m+0.8%
3m-0.5%
6m—
1y—
original post →

End of results.