My attempt at Google valuation
DCF valuation model suggests Google is trading at a 28% discount to intrinsic value (~$492B equity value) based on conservative 12% FCFE growth, accounting for $700B AI capex debt paydown over years 2-8. AI improvements in ads, cloud, and ventures support the thesis that Google can maintain historical 18% CAGR despite maturity.
At post $352.72·Now $344.18-2.4% since postedas of Oct 19, 4:30 PM ET
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Using Warren Buffet's Owners Earnings on Tech Stocks: Warning not for "growth" investors
Alphabet's forward owner earnings yield of 4.3% (base case) to -1.5% (strict case) fails to meet the >10% hurdle rate for value-oriented investors. AI capex intensity significantly erodes true owner earnings.
At post $352.72·Now $344.18-2.4% since postedas of Oct 19, 4:30 PM ET
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Long 106,000,000 shares of GOOGL
Berkshire just flipped from net seller to aggressive buyer and Alphabet is now its #3 stock holding
Berkshire Hathaway increased its Alphabet position by 83% to 106M shares, making it the third-largest equity holding worth $37.8B. The aggressive accumulation signals management's conviction in value at current levels and marks a shift toward capital deployment after 14 quarters of net selling.
At post $347.84·Now $344.18-1.1% since postedas of Oct 19, 4:30 PM ET
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3d-1.7%
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Peter Schiff Tells Vlad He Should Sell His Google Stock
Peter Schiff argues Google stock is currently overpriced and predicts that capital invested in it will underperform significantly over the next 10 years, citing historical examples of technology leaders like Yahoo and Spyglass that eventually lost market dominance.
At post $344.60·Now $344.18-0.1% since postedas of Oct 19, 4:30 PM ET
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Commoditisation of AI, and who wins
As AI commoditizes and LLMs become interchangeable, Google's massive ecosystem moat across search, Chrome, Android, YouTube, Workspace, and Cloud gives Gemini an insurmountable distribution advantage that competitors cannot replicate.
At post $343.98·Now $344.18+0.1% since postedas of Oct 19, 4:30 PM ET
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Long GOOGL $350C exp Aug 12
Zero research YOLO GOOGL $350c 8/12
Author is betting on Google stock appreciation with call options (strike $350, expiry 8/12), though acknowledging the bet is made without research and may be as irrational as betting on amateur tennis.
At post $343.58·Now $344.18+0.2% since postedas of Oct 19, 4:30 PM ET
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Is Google a Safer AI Play?
Google's proprietary ASIC-based AI infrastructure offers superior efficiency compared to GPU-dependent competitors. As the market matures and GPU costs become prohibitive, Google can raise prices and capture growing demand from companies adopting energy-efficient, dedicated AI hardware—positioning Google as a safer, more resilient AI beneficiary.
At post $354.07·Now $344.18-2.8% since postedas of Oct 19, 4:30 PM ET
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Google 400 calls
Author is holding Google 400 calls and refusing to sell, betting on continued upside movement above the strike price.
At post $362.20·Now $344.18-5.0% since postedas of Oct 19, 4:30 PM ET
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Is Circular Financing in AI setting up an epic blow-up?
Google Cloud's AI revenues are concentrated in unprofitable, capital-dependent OpenAI and Anthropic (27% of 2024 AI revenue, projected 48% in 2025), creating systemic risk. The circular financing model—where Google funds customers it depends on for growth—is unsustainable without productivity gains, threatening valuations and returns.
At post $373.27·Now $344.18-7.8% since postedas of Oct 19, 4:30 PM ET
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Buffett purchased $10 billion worth of Google stock. While everyone is asking why he bought in, a more compelling question is: why was Google in such a rush to sell?
Google is strategically converting capital into scarce long-term assets—proprietary chips, energy infrastructure, and exclusive access to AI labs—positioning itself as the lowest-cost token factory. Buffett's $10B purchase at 22.5x forward P/E captures both a mature search cash cow funding the acquisition and toll-road infrastructure controlling AI compute, making it a rational bargain amid an industry-wide AI infrastructure arms race.
At post $326.35·Now $344.18+5.5% since postedas of Oct 19, 4:30 PM ET
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Google started selling its TPUs to outside data centers last quarter (Q2-2026)
Google's initiation of TPU chip sales to external data centers represents a strategic shift toward competing directly with Nvidia in custom silicon. Combined with an ~82% Cloud revenue surge, $520B backlog, and improved Cloud segment margins (21% to 36% YoY), Google is positioned to monetize its decade-old proprietary AI chip advantage while reducing capital intensity.
At post $326.35·Now $344.18+5.5% since postedas of Oct 19, 4:30 PM ET
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Long 1,000 shares of GOOGL
319k GOOGL Yolo
Author bought 1000 shares of GOOGL at $319.35 expecting the stock to reach $399 in the next few months for an $80k profit.
At post $319.53·Now $344.18+7.7% since postedas of Oct 19, 4:30 PM ET
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Google Cloud’s 82% YoY Surge: The AI Cloud Consolidation Wave is Here?
Google Cloud's 82% YoY revenue growth and integrated AI platform create a durable competitive moat. As enterprises consolidate vendors around hyperscalers, switching costs and margins will improve, positioning Google for multi-year market share gains and compounding returns.
At post $319.53·Now $344.18+7.7% since postedas of Oct 19, 4:30 PM ET
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Google Q2 update: first negative free cash flow quarter ever even as cloud grew 82%
Google's first-ever negative free cash flow quarter ($5.9B) despite 30% earnings growth and record capex ($44.9B) suggests the business is spending more than it generates. While cloud growth at 82% with 35.6% margins is positive, elevated capex likely outpaces near-term cash generation, pulling fair value down.
At post $317.49·Now $344.18+8.4% since postedas of Oct 19, 4:30 PM ET
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I basically stopped clicking Google links months ago. Their quarter just explained why that doesn't matter.
Google's search revenue remains resilient despite AI abstracts reducing clicks, because high-intent commercial searches still monetize effectively and fund competitive AI investments through $63B quarterly ad revenue. However, valuation north of $4T with negative FCF and rising capex guidance (capex $195-205B annually) is unclear whether justified as a defensive "survival" thesis.
At post $341.87·Now $344.18+0.7% since postedas of Oct 19, 4:30 PM ET
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“I own some of it. I am not short anything.”
About $662B of hyperscaler leases have not commenced yet, and none of it is in the leverage ratios. The recognition boundary is the risk.
Major hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple) face significant unrecognized lease obligations ($662B off-balance sheet under ASC 842) and residual-value guarantees on data-center leases. Reported leverage ratios exclude these commitments, creating an artificially low debt picture; management controls both lease commencement timing and useful-life assumptions, inflating reported margins by 20-27% until leases commence and guarantees are quantified.
At post $351.76·Now $344.18-2.2% since postedas of Oct 19, 4:30 PM ET
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“GOOGL 380C 7/24, many contracts”
Google's recent dump and upcoming earnings play
Google's fundamentals are solid—cloud revenue up 63% with record margins, $462B backlog, and turning away customers due to capacity constraints. The Gemini delay and engineer departures are overblown, expectations have reset, and Buffett's $10B direct investment validates the capex thesis. Earnings Wednesday should trigger a recovery similar to Q1's post-print rally.
At post $351.76·Now $344.18-2.2% since postedas of Oct 19, 4:30 PM ET
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$GOOGLr/wallstreetbetsDDbullish u/Akuda · 93d ago1 prior · 50% at 3mo “Rolled mostly into Aug 21 calls; also holds 4 calls with 7/24 expiration”
GOOGL earnings 7/22 the GAAP number is going to look insane
Google's Q2 GAAP earnings will significantly exceed consensus estimates due to a large mark-to-market gain on its ~5-6% SpaceX stake (~$70B increase from Q1 to Q2), which analysts haven't factored into the $2.89 EPS estimate. A potential 140%+ earnings beat headline will drive investor attention; the asset is now liquid post-IPO and available as collateral, addressing bear case concerns about capex pressuring free cash flow.
At post $351.76·Now $344.18-2.2% since postedas of Oct 19, 4:30 PM ET
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Long GOOGL $400C exp Aug 21 · 250 contracts
GOOGL YOLO ~$150k
GOOGL is coiling under the $368–372 resistance shelf with a higher low at $340, setting up for a break to $408.61 ATH and beyond. Open interest stacked at the 8/21 $415 strike signals crowd conviction, and the author expects better-than-even odds of tagging $400 before the July 29 earnings.
At post $366.22·Now $344.18-6.0% since postedas of Oct 19, 4:30 PM ET
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$GOOGLr/wallstreetbetsDDbullish u/Akuda · 117d ago1 prior · 50% at 3mo Long GOOGL $350C exp Aug 21
GOOGL DD and amateur analysis.
GOOGL is trapped in a $341-350 range due to underwriter hedging of a $30B equity raise, but structural catalysts—Dow inclusion (June 26), July 17 call expiration, and Q2 earnings/Gemini 3.5 Pro launch (July 22)—will lift this cap. Author targets $380-390 via August 21 calls, expecting post-earnings breakout after underwriter stabilization period ends.
At post $345.07·Now $344.18-0.3% since postedas of Oct 19, 4:30 PM ET
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