| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 3d | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | +0.9% | +0.0% |
| 1w | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | +4.4% | +6.6% |
| 1m | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | +11.4% | +17.4% |
| 3m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
SanDisk (storage/memory supplier) will face margin compression and reduced demand as AI capex unwinds in 2027–2028 and profitability pressures force LLM providers to optimize efficiency, reducing storage and compute hardware purchases.
Memory chip manufacturers like Micron will suffer as the AI capex cycle unwinds in 2027–2028. Reduced compute demand from efficiency gains and margin compression will degrade demand for memory chips, making memory suppliers vulnerable to the broader shovel-maker collapse.
The AI capex boom will unwind in 2027–2028 as profitability pressures force LLM providers to optimize efficiency, reducing compute demand. NVDA faces additional headwinds from ASIC competition, customer concentration (3 customers = 54% of revenue), and China's pivot to domestic alternatives, making it the primary victim of the capex cycle collapse.
End of results.