u/Kind-Independence-67 · 13h agono track record yet
SOFI — Forensic Bear Case: Fair Value $11.46 (-27%)
SOFI is priced as a 21% ROTCE bank but earns only 6.7%, requiring valuations 2.15x tangible book that are unsustainable. Core problems include equity growth driven by dilution (81% from stock issuance, shares +14.3% YoY), $1.93B of intangible book value from loan fair-value marks, hidden credit losses (~3.7% all-in NCOs vs. 2.62% headline), stalling loan platform volumes, and Tech Platform revenue declining 23% YoY—yielding a forensic fair value of $11.46 (-27% from $15.80).
At post $15.23Now $15.58+2.3% since postedas of Oct 7, 1:01 PM ET