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u/Last-Cat-7894

4 theses · first seen Oct 20, 2026
WindowThesesResolvedWinsWin rateAvg returnMedian return
1d3300%-5.6%-6.8%
3d44125%-2.5%-4.3%
1w44125%-10.8%-10.5%
1m44250%-3.2%-2.5%
3m33133%-5.6%-13.1%
6m2200%-9.9%-9.9%
1y111100%+62.0%+62.0%

Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.

Thesis history

$FICOr/ValueInvestingDiscussionbullish
u/Last-Cat-7894 · 37d ago3 prior · 33% at 3mo

FICO is attractive here, despite the bad optics

Despite recent regulatory headwinds from competitor VantageScore and aggressive historical pricing, FICO maintains a durable moat through securitization markets where institutional investors model risk exclusively on FICO scores. The spread premium FICO commands in mortgage-backed securities is economically immense enough that banks and borrowers will continue paying for FICO pulls even at elevated prices.

At post $879.62Now $711.23-19.1% since postedas of Oct 30, 4:45 PM ET
1d-2.6%
3d-1.9%
1w-32.6%
1m-7.3%
3m—
6m—
1y—
original post →
$ADBEr/ValueInvestingDiscussionbullish
u/Last-Cat-7894 · 141d ago3 prior · 33% at 3mo
“I own shares and remain pretty bullish”

Adobe is now flirting with single digit SBC adjusted FCF multiples

Adobe trades at a compressed 10x FCF multiple despite solid 10% organic revenue growth, stable margins, and strong cash generation ($8.3B TTM FCF). With no material evidence of disruption from AI competition and a balance sheet capable of supporting buybacks, the stock offers attractive value relative to its historical trading range.

At post $218.80Now $250.23+14.4% since postedas of Oct 30, 4:45 PM ET
1d-6.8%
3d-6.8%
1w-10.8%
1m+2.2%
3m+16.5%
6m—
1y—
original post →
$MELIr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/Last-Cat-7894 · 301d ago3 prior · 33% at 3mo

MercadoLibre (MELI) is my #1 conviction right now.

MercadoLibre trades at 30x EV/EBIT (comparable to Walmart) despite 27+ consecutive quarters of >30% revenue growth. Its diversified moat—ecommerce marketplace, payment network, credit, and ads—benefits from powerful network effects. With ads penetration at 2% vs. Amazon's 7-8% and a wide execution runway, the risk-reward is compelling.

At post $1,973.70Now $1,624.53-17.7% since postedas of Oct 30, 4:45 PM ET
1d—
3d+8.9%
1w+10.4%
1m+8.8%
3m-13.1%
6m-11.7%
1y—
original post →
$GOOGLr/ValueInvestingDiscussionbullish
u/Last-Cat-7894 · 633d ago3 prior · 33% at 3mo

Obligatory "Google is cheap" post

Alphabet's strong earnings (12% revenue growth, 31% EPS growth, 5% margin expansion, 30% cloud growth) coupled with a valuation of 23-24x PE are unjustifiably punished by a 7% post-earnings drop. The company offers compelling value versus peers like Walmart trading at 40x PE with low single-digit growth.

At post $205.18Now $279.84+36.4% since postedas of Oct 30, 4:45 PM ET
1d-7.3%
3d-10.2%
1w-10.2%
1m-16.5%
3m-20.3%
6m-8.1%
1y+62.0%
original post →

End of results.