| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 5 | 5 | 4 | 80% | +3.5% | +2.3% |
| 3d | 5 | 5 | 4 | 80% | -0.2% | +1.0% |
| 1w | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20% | -6.6% | -5.6% |
| 1m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 3m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only.
Long-term secular demand from AI will support Nvidia valuation despite near-term energy cost uncertainties. Author holds 50k accumulated from Covid-era lows.
Applied Materials will benefit from elevated semiconductor capex driven by AI infrastructure buildout, despite energy and cost headwinds. Author holding 25k shares through earnings season.
Cooling and power infrastructure demand from AI data center expansion will drive revenue growth. Author buying out-of-the-money calls on Vertiv as a direct play on semiconductor capex and energy demand trends.
Semiconductor supply constraints from AI energy demand and rising capex/ram costs create upside optionality if demand outpaces supply. Author buying out-of-the-money calls as a directional bullish bet alongside the broader strangle hedge.
AI energy demand will surge to 10% of US electricity by 2030, likely outstripping supply and driving nonlinear commodity price increases that will pressure semiconductor margins and valuations despite apparent PEG cheapness. Author is hedging via out-of-the-money puts.
End of results.