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u/PrimarySourceArb

3 theses · first seen Sep 4, 2026
WindowThesesResolvedWinsWin rateAvg returnMedian return
1d2100%-0.2%-0.2%
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Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.

Thesis history

$NVDAr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/PrimarySourceArb · 5h ago2 prior · awaiting results
“I own NVIDIA”

Burry says NVIDIA's GPU "resale value" chart is really a rent forecast. I checked the source: he's right. I still don't think it's a reason to short NVIDIA.

NVIDIA's GPU rental economics remain sound despite Burry's concerns about resale values being rent forecasts. The memory shortage is backed by buyer demand and runs past Burry's September 2027 puts, while neocloudcompanies' financing is appropriately priced for risk, leaving the company with a 52-65% downside cushion in GPU rents before returns collapse.

Now $230.18as of Oct 1, 1:01 PM ET
original post →
$METAr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisneutral
u/PrimarySourceArb · 5d ago2 prior · awaiting results

NetEase earns Meta's margins at Meta's growth rate. It trades at half the multiple. I went through 14 companies to figure out how much of the discount is real.

Meta serves as a comparable benchmark in the author's valuation study, demonstrating that at matched growth and margin metrics, it commands a 46% premium over NetEase (21.6x forward earnings vs 11.7x). The author uses Meta as the baseline for understanding how much of Chinese tech's discount is structural versus fundamental.

At post $725.18Now $743.22+2.5% since posted16m ago
1d+0.1%
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$NTESr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/PrimarySourceArb · 5d ago2 prior · awaiting results

NetEase earns Meta's margins at Meta's growth rate. It trades at half the multiple. I went through 14 companies to figure out how much of the discount is real.

NetEase matches Meta's growth (18.9% vs 18.0%) and margins (40% vs 41%) but trades at 11.7x forward earnings versus Meta's 21.6x—a 46% discount attributable to geopolitical risk rather than fundamentals. The author's analysis of 14 comparable companies shows Chinese-listed tech consistently trades 44-46% cheaper at matched growth and profitability, suggesting significant upside if geopolitical risk premiums compress.

At post $121.16Now $121.15-0.0% since postedas of Oct 1, 1:30 PM ET
1d-0.5%
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End of results.