| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
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| 1d | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3d | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1w | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1y | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Allstate shows strong fundamentals with growing FCF, cash on hand, and revenue at an extremely cheap 5-6x P/E multiple. A value opportunity in insurance.
UnitedHealth is risky due to government healthcare threats and legal troubles, but author sees potential 3-4x upside over 2-5 years if investors hold through the uncertainty. Backed by Buffett and congressional insiders.
General Mills is undervalued in consumer staples at 10x P/E with rising free cash flow and a 5% dividend. A defensive value play.
Duolingo offers excellent financials at 15x P/E after the recent drop to $119, though it carries significant competitive and AI risk. Author suggests capping at 1-2% of portfolio as a hedge against uncertainty.
Levi Strauss is a dividend growth play with strong fundamentals (revenue, margins, EPS, FCF) at attractive 15x P/E and 2.28% yield. A long-term consumer discretionary bet.
S&P Global at 30-31x P/E is viewed as a good deal given its durable business model that AI cannot easily disrupt through knowledge analysis. Would be even more attractive below $375-400.
Netflix is at a good entry point after recent dip; author entered at $79.83 when P/E was 29-30x. Potential WB merger could unlock production, gaming, and comic assets.
Adobe trading at attractive 16x P/E with risks from competition and AI, but strong artist/designer preference keeps moat intact. Author is considering starting a position.
Author views Amazon as undervalued despite a 29x P/E, with Amazon Prime Video as a strong #2 streaming platform. Attempted to buy at the recent $200 dip but missed the opportunity.
Author is bullish on Microsoft as a diversified growth story beyond AI, with 24% revenue growth and a reasonable forward P/E of 22-23x. Currently holding 8 shares and adding to the position.
End of results.