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u/Wooden_Fondant_703

3 theses · first seen Sep 4, 2026
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Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.

Thesis history

$GOOGLr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/Wooden_Fondant_703 · 138d ago2 prior · awaiting results

GOOGL up 7% after Q1 Earning: Cloud Stopped Being A Side Story

Google Cloud has transitioned from a speculative growth story to a legitimate second profit engine with $6.6B quarterly operating income (3x YoY) and 63% revenue growth, fundamentally improving Alphabet's valuation as it diversifies earnings away from Search and demonstrates strong operating leverage despite heavy capex spending.

At post $349.51Now $349.39-0.0% since postedas of Sep 14, 4:30 PM ET
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$UNHr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/Wooden_Fondant_703 · 146d ago2 prior · awaiting results

UNH beat earnings by deliberately shedding 1 million Medicare Advantage members. Here's my take.

UNH beat earnings and expanded margins by deliberately shedding unprofitable Medicare Advantage members through premium increases, allowing them to serve fewer but more profitable customers. Despite losing 1+ million members, revenue and operating margins grew, suggesting the company has found a sustainable path out of unfavorable value-based care contracts.

At post $346.01Now $383.55+10.8% since postedas of Sep 14, 4:31 PM ET
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$INTCr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbearish
u/Wooden_Fondant_703 · 157d ago2 prior · awaiting results
Long INTC

Intel at $62 needs to become TSMC to justify its price. Here’s the math.

Intel at $62 is priced for 16% annual EBITDA growth for a decade—equivalent to TSMC's smartphone-boom performance—despite starting from negative FCF, 35% gross margins, and only $307M in foundry external revenue. The stock assumes flawless execution and resolved execution risk, but Intel's historical -1.5% revenue CAGR versus the market's +16% expectation implies a 32% overvaluation relative to consensus, making it a bet on perfection from a company with deteriorating fundamentals.

At post $62.38Now $97.19+55.8% since postedas of Sep 14, 4:30 PM ET
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End of results.