u/afcapel

1 thesis · first seen Sep 4, 2026
WindowThesesResolvedWinsWin rateAvg returnMedian return
1d111100%-3.6%-3.6%
3d1100%+1.9%+1.9%
1w1100%+7.6%+7.6%
1m1100%+15.7%+15.7%
3m000———
6m000———
1y000———

Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.

Thesis history

$NVDAr/ValueInvestingDiscussionbearish
u/afcapel · 83d agono track record yet

Circular financing is already a tell of softer Nvidia demand

Nvidia's aggressive financing of its customers—guaranteeing OpenAI's data-center deals, leasing data centers itself, and holding ~$42B in private stakes—signals demand is softening, not unlimited. Revenue is dangerously concentrated (54-70% from three hyperscalers and OpenAI), and every major customer is building custom silicon to exit Nvidia dependence, mirroring the Cisco lending playbook before the dot-com collapse.

At post $196.79Now $227.28+15.5% since postedas of Oct 13, 12:31 PM ET
1d-3.6%
3d+1.9%
1w+7.6%
1m+15.7%
3m—
6m—
1y—
original post →

End of results.