| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| 3d | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | +0.2% | +0.2% |
| 1w | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 1m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 3m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only.
Microsoft's dominant position across enterprise software, cloud (Azure), and AI tools creates an unbreakable moat and pricing power. Azure accelerating to 40% growth with strong balance sheet supports sustained upside as mega caps rotate higher.
META trades at significant discount to intrinsic value of ~$5 trillion based on modeled FCF acceleration from Reality Labs reaching breakeven by 2027-2028 and CAPEX inflection point, plus accretive subscription and data center leasing upside. Author models 15x exit multiple with 5x upside from current levels.
Author holds a November 20 put at 290 strike on the MTUM momentum ETF, expecting a pullback in the momentum factor as mean reversion sets in after the extended rally.
Author holds a semiconductor index put spread (480/400 strike) expiring July 17, betting on a pullback after Micron's 20% rally and the sector becoming overextended.
NVDA has experienced an insane run driven by FOMO chasing and institutionalization, but the market has already priced in unrealistic growth (80% earnings growth, massive capex acceleration). With weaker momentum at the 7500 technical level and all good news already baked in, a significant correction is imminent.
End of results.