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u/rain_maker15

3 theses · first seen Oct 20, 2026
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Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.

Thesis history

$NKEr/ValueInvestingDiscussionbearish
u/rain_maker15 · 27d ago2 prior · awaiting results

Nike- NKE- The Shoe Jester that was king becomes a dog

Nike faces structural headwinds including China competition, tariff pressures, weak brand turnaround, and stressed North American consumers, likely resulting in a further 45% earnings decline. The author argues the stock could fall 45% further from its 12-year low to $15 or below, driven by normalized valuations and deteriorating fundamentals rather than genuine value opportunity.

At post $35.99Now $40.76+13.3% since postedas of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET
original post →
$WINGr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/rain_maker15 · 32d ago2 prior · awaiting results

Wingstop as value?

Wingstop has declined 65% and now trades at a historically compressed P/E of 23.8-26.1x (vs. 74x 3-year average) with a 1.5 PEG ratio. Multiple analysts (Citi, BofA, Goldman, Mizuho) project 80–130% upside to price targets of $190–$240, suggesting meaningful margin of safety for value investors despite conservative DCF analysis.

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$DECKr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/rain_maker15 · 49d ago2 prior · awaiting results

Deckers Outdoor Corp seems undervalued

Deckers is trading at a 61% discount from its 20-month high with compressed multiples (P/E below 12, EV/EBITDA favorable). A $5B buyback program combined with modest 7% revenue growth could drive the stock to $300+ within five years, representing a 75% discount to intrinsic value. Upside could accelerate if tariffs are refunded or sales growth exceeds the conservative 7% assumption.

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End of results.