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u/reupped

2 theses · first seen Sep 4, 2026
WindowThesesResolvedWinsWin rateAvg returnMedian return
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Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.

Thesis history

$AMZNr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/reupped · 110d ago1 prior · awaiting results

MSFT and AMZN both look cheap. Only one of them actually is.

AMZN trades at 28x trailing earnings near 5-year PE lows, but this understates value given record margins in Q1 and the potential for AI capex to drive future earnings growth. Unlike MSFT, AMZN's capital allocation is more disciplined despite near-term FCF pressure, offering asymmetric upside if AI investments pay off.

At post $241.70Now $262.45+8.6% since postedas of Oct 19, 4:30 PM ET
1d+0.4%
3d+0.4%
1w+0.8%
1m+12.4%
3m+2.1%
6m—
1y—
original post →
$MSFTr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbearish
u/reupped · 110d ago1 prior · awaiting results

MSFT and AMZN both look cheap. Only one of them actually is.

MSFT trades at 23x earnings appearing cheap, but underlying cash flow deterioration is masked by the valuation. Heavy capex (~$90B annually) and allocation of most operating cash to expenditures make the earnings multiple deceptive if AI capex becomes perpetual maintenance spending rather than productive investment.

At post $383.56Now $533.52+39.1% since postedas of Oct 19, 4:31 PM ET
1d+1.6%
3d+1.6%
1w-0.2%
1m+20.9%
3m+32.7%
6m—
1y—
original post →

End of results.