| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40% | +0.6% | +1.6% |
| 3d | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20% | +5.5% | +6.2% |
| 1w | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0% | +5.1% | +4.9% |
| 1m | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0% | +10.9% | +9.0% |
| 3m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
The Nasdaq 100 3x leveraged ETF will decline as the AI trade unwinds and private equity offloads massive positions to prevent an immediate market crash. The author expects sideways-to-down action before a larger decline.
Palantir will face pressure from the unwinding of AI spending and the broader collapse of unprofitable LLM infrastructure investments. The author holds puts on the expected decline.
SanDisk is positioned to suffer from the same AI infrastructure collapse as other tech mega-cap investors. The author holds puts as the company unwinds unprofitable AI spending.
Nvidia holds a massive bag of wasted AI/LLM infrastructure spending that will never generate returns. The author expects Nvidia to decline as the company unwinds positions and realizes losses from unprofitable compute investments.
Oracle faces massive losses from unprofitable AI/LLM investments and will be forced to offload positions. The author expects Oracle stock to decline as private equity and tech giants unwind their AI spending without achieving profitability.
End of results.