Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
ASML guidance is a leading indicator for AI capex cycle strength. Hyperscalers will maintain $150bn+ annual capex spending for 2-3+ years driven by AI competition and moat defense, supporting sustained semiconductor equipment demand regardless of near-term rate environment.
ASML is fully booked through 2028 with broadening customer base (Intel, Samsung, Rapidus joining TSMC) and pricing power from High-NA EUV demand. Historical conservative guidance with consistent upward revisions suggests 50%+ annual EPS growth through 2028, implying PE in low 20s despite current premium valuation.
ASML's exposure to AI and semiconductor supply chains is vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions affecting helium, bromine, rare earths, and manufacturing capacity. The author liquidated positions due to overvaluation relative to supply risks.
ASML will benefit regardless of who wins the AI race due to its essential role in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, making it a durable long-term holding.
ASML's post-earnings selloff is an overreaction driven by conservative guidance; the company has a consistent pattern of underpromising and overdelivering. Exceptional net bookings beat of 30% signals strong future demand, and ASML's critical position in the semiconductor supply chain makes tariff risks unlikely to materialize.
ASML has a monopoly-like position in advanced chipmaking equipment with massive barriers to entry. Its critical role in global tech infrastructure and long-term semiconductor demand growth make it an ideal 20-year hold.
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