| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 3d | 8 | 8 | 3 | 38% | +0.1% | -0.0% |
| 1w | 8 | 8 | 6 | 75% | -9.7% | -5.1% |
| 1m | 8 | 8 | 4 | 50% | -2.7% | -6.9% |
| 3m | 8 | 8 | 5 | 63% | -13.5% | -6.3% |
| 6m | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | -71.8% | -71.8% |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Alphabet is overvalued despite supply chain risks in materials critical to data centers and AI infrastructure, plus postponement of 50% of planned US data center construction. Author exited all positions and paid off margin debt.
LRCX's semiconductor equipment business depends on supply chains now stressed by helium/bromine shortages and rare earth export controls. Author sold all holdings citing valuation risks.
ON Semiconductor's supply chain is exposed to critical material shortages and geopolitical constraints affecting rare earths and bromine production. Author liquidated all positions.
Micron's semiconductor business faces headwinds from helium and bromine supply constraints due to geopolitical disruptions, alongside postponed data center expansion. Author exited holdings citing deteriorating risk-reward.
ASML's exposure to AI and semiconductor supply chains is vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions affecting helium, bromine, rare earths, and manufacturing capacity. The author liquidated positions due to overvaluation relative to supply risks.
Amazon's valuation, alongside other AI-exposed stocks, has decoupled from underlying supply chain risks in critical materials and postponed data center projects. The author exited all positions.
Nvidia's valuation has become detached from fundamentals amid supply chain risks in helium, bromine, rare earths, and copper production, plus postponed US data center buildouts and rising capital costs. The author sold all holdings at peak portfolio concentration (67% in Aug 2025) citing unsustainable risk-reward.
Intensity Therapeutics has a revolutionary non-covalent drug delivery platform for cancer with phase 3 readout and FDA approval as catalysts years ahead. Current 50M market cap with a 20-100x upside target upon approval driven by the delivery platform's potential to enable multiple drugs and address previously unusable toxic therapeutics.
End of results.