FIGR into 8/13 earnings — the options are pricing this symmetric and I don't think it is
Author is long near-term call options expiring after earnings, betting on the upside skew materializing with Q2 results.
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Author is long near-term call options expiring after earnings, betting on the upside skew materializing with Q2 results.
Author is long Jan-2027 and Aug-14 call options on Figure Technology, betting on upside skew into earnings with favorable risk-reward versus market-priced symmetric move.
Figure Technology's options are pricing a symmetric ±14.7% move into Q2 earnings on 8/13, but the author's scenario analysis weights 65% of outcomes above current $29.61, with shallower downside zones than upside zones. The bull case rests on HELOC take rates holding at 2.9%+ and Q3 guidance starting with a 5, though implied move has compressed to +3.7% from earlier +7.3%.
End of results.