Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Author is holding SMCI shares from mid-$20s with conviction until at least 1/1/27, implying confidence in significant appreciation over the holding period.
The author alleges Super Micro Computer's accounting is fraudulent ('books cooked'), implying the stock will collapse to $50.
Super Micro Computer has doubled margins to 15%, secured 3 years of 2025 revenue in a single quarter ($60B backlog), and trades at a forward PE of 12. With 18% of float shorted, the author expects a short squeeze and upside to $124 on the back of strong data center demand and improving fundamentals.
Long-dated call options (July 2027 expiry) on SMCI representing a full portfolio commitment. Author expects significant upside over the next 3+ years, betting on company appreciation to multi-year highs.
SMCI is transitioning from a low-margin server assembler to a high-margin AI infrastructure deployment company offering rack integration, liquid cooling, software, and lifecycle support. The $39B in recent orders and CEO guidance for revenues much exceeding $40B next year signal explosive demand; the $7B capital raise reflects supply constraints, not deteriorating fundamentals. Margin expansion into the mid-teens would validate the thesis and represent significant upside.
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