Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
SOFI will rally if the Fed holds rates steady at the July 29 FOMC (66% odds expected). Weak jobs data and political timing make a hike unlikely; the surprise no-hike catalyst will benefit SOFI's earnings outlook, and management continues accumulating shares.
Author is bullish on SoFi and has taken a YOLO position. The post offers minimal rationale beyond stating they like the stock, inviting others to challenge their thesis.
Author is down on their SOFI position and expresses hope that the stock will rise above $27 by year-end to recover losses. This implies a bullish stance on the price recovery.
SOFI short-dated calls are positioned for a macro-driven bounce into Friday. Author expects SOFI to break above $16.10 (intraday battleground) and rally to $16.50–$17 if tomorrow's economic reports support equities, though the position is acknowledged as high-risk theta decay bet.
SoFi quietly disclosed $1B+ in historical fair value losses in Q1 2026 10-Q without proper accounting restatement. At least $625M+ of unreversed paper gains still sit in the loan book and will reverse as realized losses over coming quarters, pressuring earnings. Additionally, credit card portfolio shows distress with non-current loans at 97th percentile of peers and yields collapsed to 31st percentile, contradicting management's recent optimistic commentary.
End of results.