← Feed

u/stockoscope

4 theses · first seen Aug 21, 2026
WindowThesesResolvedWinsWin rateAvg returnMedian return
1d2100%-0.4%-0.4%
3d2100%-0.4%-0.4%
1w2100%+1.1%+1.1%
1m1100%+8.5%+8.5%
3m000———
6m000———
1y000———

Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.

Thesis history

$NKEr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisneutral
u/stockoscope · 31d ago3 prior · awaiting results

Does Wall Street expect a recovery or more pain ahead for Nike?

Nike shows mixed signals: revenue stabilization and margin improvement suggest early turnaround, but free cash flow has collapsed and the dividend is no longer covered by operating cash. Street expects recovery by FY2028, but key question remains whether the worst is priced in at $40 or upside exists.

At post $41.35Now $36.80-11.0% since postedas of Sep 11, 4:30 PM ET
1d-1.5%
3d-1.5%
1w-2.7%
1m—
3m—
6m—
1y—
original post →
$GOOGLr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbearish
u/stockoscope · 52d ago3 prior · awaiting results

Google Q2 update: first negative free cash flow quarter ever even as cloud grew 82%

Google's first-ever negative free cash flow quarter ($5.9B) despite 30% earnings growth and record capex ($44.9B) suggests the business is spending more than it generates. While cloud growth at 82% with 35.6% margins is positive, elevated capex likely outpaces near-term cash generation, pulling fair value down.

At post $317.49Now $338.50+6.6% since postedas of Sep 11, 4:30 PM ET
1d+0.6%
3d+0.6%
1w+5.0%
1m+8.5%
3m—
6m—
1y—
original post →
$NVDAr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisneutral
u/stockoscope · 57d ago3 prior · awaiting results

Is Nvidia priced for perfection?

Nvidia is fairly valued at ~$195 fair value vs. $203 price, with modest slowdown from 82% to 13% growth already priced in. The stock is not a bubble, but faces downside risk if revenue growth decelerates more steeply or EBITDA margins compress meaningfully below historical averages.

At post $203.05Now $218.29+7.5% since postedas of Sep 11, 4:30 PM ET
original post →
$MSFTr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/stockoscope · 76d ago3 prior · awaiting results

Six months ago we called Microsoft overvalued at $490 and got roasted for it. It's now $373. Here's where it stands.

Microsoft at $373 is fairly valued to undervalued depending on whether AI capex normalizes to maintenance levels (10% of revenue) or stays elevated. If capex reverts to historical norms, fair value is $487 (31% upside); the risk/reward has flipped from overvalued six months ago to interesting today.

At post $368.57Now $495.63+34.5% since postedas of Sep 11, 4:30 PM ET
original post →

End of results.