Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Author is doubling down on ASTS despite a near 50% loss, expressing increased confidence in the company's future and commitment to holding for a moon shot.
ASTS will see sympathy gains during SpaceX launch hype week due to its direct connection as the satellite provider for Falcon 9 launches. Retail attention on space sector and call flow could drive a move from retail chasing the narrative rather than fundamentals.
Author has moved their full portfolio into ASTS, expressing bullish conviction in the stock with an expectant tone ('to the moon').
ASTS is the only public pure-play satellite manufacturer positioned to capture the $740B satellite-to-mobile connectivity market being validated by SpaceX's S-1 filing. With 45 satellites planned by end of 2026, government defense revenue scaling, and spectrum assets comparable to SpaceX's $17B Ligado purchase, ASTS is undervalued relative to the space sector re-rating triggered by SpaceX's IPO.
ASTS has a multi-catalyst setup into June including first satellite batch launch, massive short interest squeeze potential, retail momentum, and extremely high June call open interest across the chain (especially 180 calls). The combination of structural short squeeze dynamics and event-driven catalysts creates significant upside setup.
ASTS is well-positioned for continued growth in the space sector. Author plans to reinvest in space stocks including ASTS after the SpaceX IPO settles.
SpaceX IPO will drive valuations higher for space industry peers. ASTS has major catalysts this year and will benefit from IPO momentum until near that event.
ASTS has experienced five 41-55% drawdowns since January 2025 followed by recoveries, establishing a pattern consistent with high-beta space-play volatility. The author frames the current -50% drawdown as typical noise rather than a fundamental deterioration, suggesting conviction remains intact for the long-term space-based cellular broadband thesis.
Author is making a large $30k bet on ASTS, expressing bullish conviction on the satellite communications sector despite acknowledging thin rationale.
Author is holding ASTS as part of a portfolio built in 2024 at around $4 per share, expecting significant gains in the coming year.
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