Archive mode — the ledger is frozen as of August 24, 2026. Past calls and track records remain browsable; no new data is being ingested.
$FLY
4 thesesbullish 100%neutral 0%bearish 0%
Win rate (1d)
50% (2 resolved)
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Recent theses
Prices as of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET
The Firefly Aerospace ($FLY) DD
Firefly Aerospace is a massively undervalued space company positioned to dominate multiple sectors: national security (via Northrop Grumman partnership and military connections), lunar landers (competing with Intuitive Machines), and medium-lift rockets (Eclipse). With $1.4B backlog, diversified contract revenue, and deep government ties, FLY is expected to achieve 10x returns within 5-10 years.
At post $44.24·Now $23.52-46.8% since postedas of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET
1d—
3d-10.1%
1w-18.4%
1m-33.5%
3m—
6m—
1y—
“Now loaded to a full tittie [holding screenshot showing accumulated FLY position]”
Two $FLY posts. Two times told I was regarded. Am I still regarded?
Firefly Aerospace is mispriced relative to sector comparables and is transitioning from a struggling launch provider into a diversified space defense platform with launch, lunar, orbital, and defense capabilities. Multiple near-term catalysts including Alpha Flight 8, the SpaceX IPO sector re-rating, Eclipse medium-lift vehicle, and lunar landing awards should drive significant upside.
At post $58.81·Now $23.52-60.0% since postedas of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET
1d—
3d—
1w-20.9%
1m-50.8%
3m-58.4%
6m—
1y—
$FLY position
FLY should appreciate in anticipation of a SpaceX IPO, presumably due to exposure or correlation with aerospace/space sector demand or SpaceX-related upside.
At post $43.95·Now $23.52-46.5% since postedas of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET
1d-3.1%
3d-2.5%
1w+12.6%
1m-26.8%
3m-39.3%
6m—
1y—
Launch Commoditization Doesn't Exist, and May Never. (Bullish for launch $X $RKLB $FLY)
Launch commoditization lacks the market conditions to emerge, positioning Relativity Space (Firefly's launch partner) and other medium-lift providers for pricing power if they reach technical and commercial scale. The oligopoly structure favors profitability over price wars.
At post $33.49·Now $23.52-29.8% since postedas of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET
1d+3.3%
3d+0.9%
1w+3.2%
1m+38.8%
3m-42.3%
6m—
1y—